Weathering Instability: El Nino

Weather and climate are oft overlooked factors in considering history, development, strategy and warfare. During a recent visit to the Royal BC Museum in Victoria, Canada, I noted an exhibit tab about the effect El Nino had on 16th century colonial history, which relates to events more than 3 centuries later I’ve read about in Late Victorian Holocausts: El Nino Famines & the Making of the Third World. El Nino may yet again play a critical role in events in this century.

1532 AD- A small Spanish force led by Francisco Pizarro, after several unsuccessful attempts over nearly a decade to discover the rich Inca Empire, finally achieved success when they established a settlement in NW Peru, San Miguel de Piura and making contact with an Inca envoy. It is now suspected by scientists that the rare desert rains and vegetation (a result of El Nino) that Pizarro encountered helped them in their subsequent conquering of the Inca. It is unlikely Pizarro could have crossed the desert in normal times (little water and supplies would have left his force famished) to conquer Cuzco, especially considering the prolonged insurgency he faced from Inca forces. Hence, El Nino changes history for the first known time.

Its doubtful that Pizarro could have survived the desert crossing to the heart of the Inca Empire without the abnormal desert rains and vegetation.

1877-1910 AD- El Nino related drought ravages more than 100 million Indians under the callous rule of the British, who value the sanctity of their grain markets and Afghanistan campaign budget above all else. The agrarian economy of Northern India collapses, impoverishing tens of millions, killing at least ten million peasants as overcrowded urban centers, work camps and prison camps served as ground zero for disease outbreaks which raised the body count ever higher. Millions persisted on Lord Lytton’s daily work calorie ration that was actually less than the victims at Buchenwald. The roots of Indian poverty were formed in this time frame.

Indian Famine Victims

Now and in the future, what far-reaching effects could El Nino related events have? The destablizing environmental and social impact of brushfires in SE Asia, drought in India or China, flooding in Latin America or a devastating storm in Mexico striking the vulnerable, decaying heart of Mexican petro production could all be seminal events in the history of nations and even regions. It is worth exploring the potential trajectories of such events, not only for planning purposes but also for the opportunties they present for America to work with other nations and NGO’s to prepare for and respond to these disasters.

Indonesian Brushfires As Seen From Space

While the US military should certainly be a part of these cooperative partnerships, American civilian disaster relief specialists from urban areas like NYC and LA should be at the forefront, sharing training and information with locals. It is arguable that mil to mil relations may be increasingly seen as the cure-all by American officials, and this would qualify as a serious mistake both for the military and for America’s foreign policy interests. In an era where the US military is increasingly politicized and controversial across much of the world for various reasons, it will be imperative for other viable options for foreign national training and joint operations to be considered.

The serious talk by Thomas PM Barnett (among numerous others) of adapting to global warming’s effects may help lead to a profound shift in the response of governments and organizations to the challenges of climate change, both short-term and incremental. The role and effects of climate change will grow in the coming years. Understanding its place in history will help us to prepare for this.

Foot In Mouth Disease Outbreak Obscures The Truth

The careless use of loaded terms while making an argument is a fundamental no-no for anyone past adolescence.  Its natural to dismiss such arguments when crafted in this context.  Yet recently three perceptive comments from highly controversial figures (two of whom I personally loathe) have been obscured by the crap-shoot jihads waged against the figures because of the loaded terms they utilized.

John Kerry infamously alluded to doing well in high school or facing the prospect of joining the Army and going to Iraq.

George Soros committed the cardinal sin of comparing the situation the US finds itself in and groups responsible for it to the Nazis in some shape or form.

William Arkin deliberately called American soldiers “mercenaries” in a recent post on his Washington Post blog.

The insertion of one’s foot in his mouth is normally reasonable occasion for laughter and ridicule.  These particular instances are tragic for the harsh truths the buffoons revealed which was obscured bythe infantile screaming of some in the blogosphere and media.

Whatever John Kerry’s intent, his basic comment accidentally pointed out a hideous truth about today’s Army.  No matter the official propaganda from the politicized DOD, the Army has been lowering its standards for the past few years to meet its recruiting quota.  Truthful and accurate numbers are likely impossible to ascertain, but the perception one gets from talking to recruiters from other services, from current and recently retired Army veterans, from MEPS personnel, etc. does not paint a pretty picture for the state of the Army with the kind of recruits its forced to enlist because most Americans of military age are avoiding the Army in droves.   The long-term effects of this cannot be good.

A personal aside from experience in the Navy; the perception of quality difference in those who leave the service versus those who reenlist is deceptive.   In essence, a lot of good folks are leaving, a lot of average and below average folks are staying in or getting out and going into the Army for the high bonuses.

Soros addressed the disturbing continued empowerment and influence of many who have been stunningly wrong about Iraq and the larger role of the US in the world at nearly every step of the way.  If the US government and its minions were a corporation, it would sickeningly appear quite similar in ills and misleadership to infamous disasters like K-Mart, Enron and Tyco.

At a moment when the US plan for success is already falling apart on the ground (the Mahdi Army in hiding, Sunni Al-Qaeda and other groups as well, ethnic cleansing continuing unabated), these failed leaders and ideologues are clamoring for war with Iran, interfering with Israeli negotiations with Syria and refusing to comprehend that their failed dreams of insta-democracy in Iraq have literally exploded over and over again in the face of tens of thousands of American soldiers, Iraqi police and Iraqi civilians.  They play a cynical game of poisonous patriotism that they exploit at will when dealing with political opponents and dissenters.  In response to this, the Jewish Soros is libeled as a Nazi collaborator.  A sick irony is not that as it is not George Soros who is aligned with and shakes the hand of the Iraqi government and its death squad allies/masters, who are slaughtering Sunni Iraqis at will by the tens of thousands.

Arkin was incensed by a few American soldiers who treated with contempt the belief of some Americans that they can oppose the Iraq war but support the troops nonetheless.  His larger point he tried to make was that in spite of years of continued failure in Iraq, grievous scandals, mounting financial costs, loss of national prestige and reputation and the basis of the war being on lies and deceptions, the American people have largely given Pres. Bush and the military a pass in the belief that they could succeed.  Sometime late last year, that pass was revoked as a 2/3 majority of Americans decided the war was a mistake and that the leadership in the White House, Congress and the military was too incompetent to win.  Yet the American people still by and large go out of their way to support the military.

The underlying attitude in criticism of Arkin from members of the military seemed to be fury at the anti-war forces in the country.  The aforementioned milbloggers, uniformed and retired military personnel as well as usual suspects in the media and blogosphere fail to understand both the Constitution and the political dynamics at home and abroad.  America has lost not only in the eyes of the world but in the view of an overwhelming majority of its citizens.  To embrace the anti-war opinion now is to be the average American citizen, contemptuous of the Bush Administration and its policies, fearful of the consequences of military and political failure and anxious to learn from the ”blame the troops” tragedy of the Vietnam War.  If a vocal minority of the military don’t learn to understand this, they may well be the catalyst for the American people to lose respect and appreciation for the military as a whole.

Lost in the self-righteous faux outrage here are the salient points made by the three who face the contempt and broadsides of the self-indulgent.  This is a far greater outrage in itself because the facts are being ignored in the process and not being properly debated, understood or even considered in most cases.