Hitting Back Against The Junta

A heavy price must be exacted by the US and its allies that goes far beyond simple sanctions in the face of the junta’s decision to murder its own citizens.

-Sanction the foreign collaborators.
Key backers of the regime, including China, Russia and India, must pay a cost for the blood they will have on their hands. Specific businesses and their heads should be targeted with sanctions as well as government figures who have played a role in furthering the interests of the junta. Name these people and companies before the world and empower the legislatures in the US, Canada and EU to devise sanctions against them.

-Unleash Speaker Pelosi.
The Speaker of the House is a known China skeptic with a rather strong human rights record. Her withering criticism of the Chinese and others should be used, because unlike Secretary of State Condi Rice or even Pres. Bush himself, who lack the credibility and the nerve to take on the regime and its backers in the world’s eyes, she can find enough votes and attract enough attention to do credible damage to the reputations of China and Chinese companies that do business in both Burma and America. Legislation that uses targeted sanctions on individuals and firms, goes after some of the drug money the junta makes a fortune laundering and applies a focused eye on the activities of petrol, natural gas and natural resource firms in the future (Through a Congressionally-mandated investigation & reporting process every year) would be enormously helpful compared to the weak set of sanctions currently in place against Burma in general.

-Threaten and plan to train and equip the justly rebellious groups operating within Burma and along its border areas.

While these groups are far from clean-cut good guys (given their penchant for drug dealing and trafficking), some of them represent ethnic groups that have faced murderous behavior from the junta that amounts to ethnic cleansing. They have every reason to rebel and should no longer be left out in the cold if the junta is going to prove once again that it cares nothing for its citizens, whatever their ethnic group or geographic location be. If China wants to support the junta, then it will have to accept the security concerns for its citizens that will come with that, as well as for the stability of its near abroad, which it claims to put a premium on but nevertheless supports destablizing governments in North Korea, Cambodia and Burma.

-Collect all evidence of the junta’s crimes (beatings, rapes and killings) and publicize it with the media and relevant groups.
The world should know without doubt of the blood on the hands of the junta, and those implicated should be charged with crimes against humanity, especially the current head of the junta. If Hu Jintao and others want to meet with the generals, let them shake the hands of implicated war criminals.

-Engage in spiritual warfare.
Emphasize the violation of sacred Buddhist principles by the junta and implore the condemnation of the junta by Buddhist groups within and outside of Burma. They utterly depend on their fabricated image as good Buddhists, and the free pass on this must be revoked. Work together with leading Buddhist figures in the region to assault this lie with blunt truth.

-Tempt the next generation of military officers.
Utilize backchannels and plain ol word of mouth to remind the young generation of military officers that a brighter future for them, and for their nation, could be possible if they were to overthrow the dinosaurs in charge. A Burma that is less free, but nevertheless more prosperous with an economy that includes the majority of the population and offers steps towards greater freedom and political openness, is far more preferable than the closed, xenophobic junta in control today.

Burma: Tear Gas & Violence… Now What?

Aung Naing Oo , a former student leader in Burma who was involved in the 1988 uprising and who now lives in exile in the UK, believes the junta cannot stop the 2007 protesters. “Nobody knew what was happening in 1988,” he told the Today programme on BBC Radio Four.
“There was only very little information about the killings. Now with the internet and the whole world watching I think its a totally different story now and I think the other important difference is that in 1988 it was the students that were leading the demonstrations, but now it is the monks. Monks are highly revered in the country.”

Anger is growing among the protesters in Rangoon over the treatment of the monks, the BBC’s South East Asia correspondent, Jonathan Head, reports.

Here we go…..Only one dead so far.  How many by the end of the week? 

Is Aung Naing Oo correct in predicting a different outcome because of the widespread media coverage? 

How much chaos and bloodshed will China tolerate before fear over linkage to the junta’s behavior with Beijing’s close support and aid and the 2008 Beijing Olympics colors their reaction?

What concrete steps are available to activists within the USG and in civil society to effect real pressure on Beijing over this? Boycotts would seem out of the question, as would protests (they occur all the time over Tibet and religious freedom). 

A campaign in the media that plays off a theme similar to the modestly effective “Genocide Olympics” effort earlier this year? 

Hearings on Capitol Hill over the interesting tidbits Pepe Escobar takes note of with China’s military and economic ties with the junta?

Does private pressure work on Chinese leaders?  Are there interested parties making such calls with suggestions or warnings?

Where is Speaker Pelosi going to be on this?  She’s been a China hawk from the left for a long time, will a violent end to these protests provoke her fury? 

She’s been relatively calm on the China front, showing her occasional insensibilities with a disgraceful position on the Colombian free trade agreement (she cites union opposition to the deal, i.e. homegrown Colombian opposition, but this seems to be false, as most private sector Colombian unions support and greatly desire such an agreement). 

The increased use of satellite imagery would be helpful at this point in the cities and around the temples.  Publicizing that as well would be useful.  Remind the generals the world is watching. And pray like hell that somehow that could matter to them at this point, or at least to the Chinese.

Rather typical of Pres. Bush to offer a pathetic condemnation followed up by weak-kneed sanctions that have zero effect and merely offer an illusion of effort. 

More effective perhaps would have been a public request for China, India and others to confer with him at the UN over the issue, and hammer out a joint resolution which begins to lay the groundwork for what should be the inevitable ending; a UN or ASEAN intervention force on the ground to prepare the ground for a new government in Burma. 

That would too greatly threaten too many interests for too many parties at this point though, so it remains a daydream.

As would Speaker Pelosi threatening to make America’s participation in the Olympics an issue if China is seen as having blood on its hands.  (Obviously this is a stupid idea in practice, but as a threat and attention-generator for how serious this crisis is, quite effective).

Pepe Escobar’s take is illuminating. He talks of Chinese pipelines, joint-survelliance projects, Indian natural gas deals, vast drug-money laundering that effectively acts as Burma’s revenue, European energy interests, etc.  Translation: the Burmese people are going to be let down again, and the only question is how many will rot in prison and work camps and how many will die?

Great closer though:
So this seems to be the trillion-yuan question: Will Chinese President Hu Jintao sanction a Tiananmen remix - with Buddhist subtitles - less than one year before the Olympics that will signal to the whole world the renewed power and glory of the Middle Kingdom? If only the Buddha would contemplate direct intervention.

In The Streets Of Burma….

The Beeb asks with regards to the developing situation in Burma:

What sparked the protests?

On 15 August the government decided to increase the price of fuel. Both petrol and diesel doubled in price, while the cost of compressed gas - used to power buses - increased five-fold.

The hikes hit Burma’s people hard, forcing up the price of public transport and triggering a knock-on effect for staples such as rice and cooking oil.

And then, Why are monks involved?

The monks started participating in large numbers after troops used force to break up a peaceful rally in the central town of Pakokku on 5 September.

At least three monks were hurt. The next day, monks in Pakokku briefly took government officials hostage. They gave the government until 17 September to apologise, but no apology was forthcoming.

When the deadline expired, the monks began to protest in much greater numbers and also withdrew their religious services from the military and their families.

There have been protests every day since the deadline, both in Rangoon and elsewhere, and they are getting bigger by the day. Tens of thousands of monks are now involved.

The participation of the monks is significant because there are hundreds of thousands of them and they are highly revered. The clergy has historically been prominent in political protests in Burma. Because of the clergy’s influence, the government has tried hard to woo many senior abbots. The fact that these abbots have chosen to remain silent is a sign for many people that they condone the protests.

Analysts believe that any violence against the monks could trigger a national uprising.

What’s worth noting from all this?

Three key themes have emerged here:

1. The destablizing social and political impact of sudden, substantial price increases in key areas (energy, food, medicine) on developing countries (as seen with tortillas in Mexico, fuel in Iran, transport costs in Manilla).

2. The critical role China plays in influencing the behavior and decisions of its client states, whether it be approval of UN peacekeepers from the Sudan regime (formerly threatening jihad against foreign troops) or Pakistan’s handling of the Red Mosque hostage crisis.

3. The decisive religious element in many domestic disturbances that reach or exceed this level: clerics in Iran in 1979, priests in Argentina after the Falklands and Chile during the 1988 plebicite, Buddhist monks in Sri Lanka prior to the civil war commencing, etc. etc.  Organized religion (whether wielding established but rarely used power or acting as an insurgent faith) as represenative of the wishes of the majority in such power struggles can be incredible forces for good or ill.

The implied threats of activists to link the possible violent course the illegal military junta in Burma could take to China is akin to playing with fire (burning existing bridges with Chinese officials that could prove useful with North Korean refugees, future junta behavior, human rights issues within China), but potential short-term benefits abound, especially in playing on fears of tainting the 2008 Olympics as well as potentially exacerbating anti-Chinese (caused mainly by Chinese economic dominance in many sectors) feelings within Burma itself. 

The statement of a Chinese official earlier this year hoping for a “democracy process that is approriate for the country” is accurate; there exists fertile ground for ethnic tension related to political and economic power struggles in any post-junta government as well as the corrosive legacy of more than 4 decades of military misrule to overcome.  Patience would be the most critical requirement for a successful rebirth for the nation, patience that would have to be ably provided by aid, investment and security assistance from its two great neighbors, India and China, as well as the Japanese, Americans and Europeans. 

An unlikely possibility but one that nevertheless is worth pursuing (and perhaps one Thomas PM Barnett could appreciate) would be for China, India, ASEAN and America to confer quickly on a sizeable intervention force that could enter Burma by the end of the year to secure major population centers in conjunction with the UN alongside a democratic process that would meet the basic needs of the people of Burma as well as their neighbors. 

The misrule of the military benefits no one in the long term, save the military itself.  That is something worth repeating over and over again over the next few days and weeks.  If this represents a critical chance for the US to persuade China (and to a lesser extent, India) of the benefits of talking the generals out of power now, before massive, bloody social unrest unfolds, it is an opportunity that cannot be missed.

P.S.

In the meantime, a prayer for the people of Burma, especially those risking their lives to defy the orders of some of the most vile creatures claiming to be humans in a military uniform in Burma by marching in the streets or protecting the monks leading the protests.  They are in a state of danger few of us could truly ever appreciate.  Should the streets run red with their blood, as I can’t help but expect to happen, may their deaths not have been in vain for one day may a peaceful and relatively free Burma exist.