In The Streets Of Burma….

The Beeb asks with regards to the developing situation in Burma:

What sparked the protests?

On 15 August the government decided to increase the price of fuel. Both petrol and diesel doubled in price, while the cost of compressed gas – used to power buses – increased five-fold.

The hikes hit Burma’s people hard, forcing up the price of public transport and triggering a knock-on effect for staples such as rice and cooking oil.

And then, Why are monks involved?

The monks started participating in large numbers after troops used force to break up a peaceful rally in the central town of Pakokku on 5 September.

At least three monks were hurt. The next day, monks in Pakokku briefly took government officials hostage. They gave the government until 17 September to apologise, but no apology was forthcoming.

When the deadline expired, the monks began to protest in much greater numbers and also withdrew their religious services from the military and their families.

There have been protests every day since the deadline, both in Rangoon and elsewhere, and they are getting bigger by the day. Tens of thousands of monks are now involved.

The participation of the monks is significant because there are hundreds of thousands of them and they are highly revered. The clergy has historically been prominent in political protests in Burma. Because of the clergy’s influence, the government has tried hard to woo many senior abbots. The fact that these abbots have chosen to remain silent is a sign for many people that they condone the protests.

Analysts believe that any violence against the monks could trigger a national uprising.

What’s worth noting from all this?

Three key themes have emerged here:

1. The destablizing social and political impact of sudden, substantial price increases in key areas (energy, food, medicine) on developing countries (as seen with tortillas in Mexico, fuel in Iran, transport costs in Manilla).

2. The critical role China plays in influencing the behavior and decisions of its client states, whether it be approval of UN peacekeepers from the Sudan regime (formerly threatening jihad against foreign troops) or Pakistan’s handling of the Red Mosque hostage crisis.

3. The decisive religious element in many domestic disturbances that reach or exceed this level: clerics in Iran in 1979, priests in Argentina after the Falklands and Chile during the 1988 plebicite, Buddhist monks in Sri Lanka prior to the civil war commencing, etc. etc.  Organized religion (whether wielding established but rarely used power or acting as an insurgent faith) as represenative of the wishes of the majority in such power struggles can be incredible forces for good or ill.

The implied threats of activists to link the possible violent course the illegal military junta in Burma could take to China is akin to playing with fire (burning existing bridges with Chinese officials that could prove useful with North Korean refugees, future junta behavior, human rights issues within China), but potential short-term benefits abound, especially in playing on fears of tainting the 2008 Olympics as well as potentially exacerbating anti-Chinese (caused mainly by Chinese economic dominance in many sectors) feelings within Burma itself. 

The statement of a Chinese official earlier this year hoping for a “democracy process that is approriate for the country” is accurate; there exists fertile ground for ethnic tension related to political and economic power struggles in any post-junta government as well as the corrosive legacy of more than 4 decades of military misrule to overcome.  Patience would be the most critical requirement for a successful rebirth for the nation, patience that would have to be ably provided by aid, investment and security assistance from its two great neighbors, India and China, as well as the Japanese, Americans and Europeans. 

An unlikely possibility but one that nevertheless is worth pursuing (and perhaps one Thomas PM Barnett could appreciate) would be for China, India, ASEAN and America to confer quickly on a sizeable intervention force that could enter Burma by the end of the year to secure major population centers in conjunction with the UN alongside a democratic process that would meet the basic needs of the people of Burma as well as their neighbors. 

The misrule of the military benefits no one in the long term, save the military itself.  That is something worth repeating over and over again over the next few days and weeks.  If this represents a critical chance for the US to persuade China (and to a lesser extent, India) of the benefits of talking the generals out of power now, before massive, bloody social unrest unfolds, it is an opportunity that cannot be missed.

P.S.

In the meantime, a prayer for the people of Burma, especially those risking their lives to defy the orders of some of the most vile creatures claiming to be humans in a military uniform in Burma by marching in the streets or protecting the monks leading the protests.  They are in a state of danger few of us could truly ever appreciate.  Should the streets run red with their blood, as I can’t help but expect to happen, may their deaths not have been in vain for one day may a peaceful and relatively free Burma exist.