New Asian Hemisphere

In his new book, “The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift Of Global Power To The East“, Kishore Mahbubani, Singapore’s former UN ambassador and now Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at Singapore National University, sees the world as becoming a better place, driven by the massive growth of the Asian low to middle classes amid their historic journey into modernity.

Throughout the book he sprinkles illuminating personal examples from his time as a diplomat, whether testifying to the arrogance of the EU from the fall of the Soviet Union until now or the appalling lack of adaptation to new global realities on the part of American elites. Needless to say, he pulls no punches in the book, as further posts will indicate.

“The Three Scenarios”

He challenges the Western (in his view consisting of the EU & the Anglo nations) loss of confidence, bemoaning how countries that touted free trade and open markets can now become skeptical of the very process they created while making self-serving exceptions on wasteful agricultural subsidies and nationalist appeals to protect specific industries and companies from foreign competition.

His larger point is a serious paradox our politicians and elites often ignore:

“…up until recently the most optimistic societies of the world have been Western societies, but they seem to be losing their optimism, at a point in time when they should be celebrating the galloping modernization of the world.”

Such misplaced fear and focus on dangers, not opportunities, have harmed many already, causing countless matters of great potential to be ignored or squandered because of irrational behavior and thinking.

Moving on, he explores three potential outcomes of Asia’s rise in the 21st Century by order of probability:

March To Modernity

Asia continues its growth and development, offering competing but complimentary examples to other regions amid an “enormous renaissance of Asian societies” and civilizations. Billions of responsible stakeholders join the West with common interests of stability. The world shifts from a seemingly monocivilizational world into a

Retreat Into Fortresses

The West (primarily the EU, already engaging in such behavior unabashedly) lapses into protectionist policies feeling they cannot and should not compete with the Asian economies. The current trade talks are sabotaged and left to fail by European dishonesty and intransigence and the triumphant influence of the Lou Dobbs and John Edwards types in America who signify an American loss of confidence in the global trade system.

“This growing inflexibility of Europe to accommodate change would well be replicated in the United States if Americans begin to share the same degree of insecurity as Europeans.”

Western Triumphalism

As this is the least likely of the scenarios, Mahbubani points out three main flaws of the idea that the world will or could be Westernized to the extent assumed by many in the West:

1. Belief that the West had triumphed over the Soviet Union because of its values.

2. Belief that any society anywhere in the world could be immediately transformed overnight into a liberal democracy.

3. Belief that differences in culture did not matter because Western liberal democratic society was universally applicable.

Its of little surprise to the reader that Mahbubani warily observes the continued obsession of many in the West with the ascension of the last scenario.

He takes care to observe how the West nevertheless is a valid inspiration on great issues; as he declares; “It is a huge sign of the new cultural confidence of many Asian societies, especially China and India, that they are prepared to learn from and absorb Western best practices in developing their societies.”

 Part II: The 7 Pillars Of Success Asia has learned from the West and wondering why the West is not celebrating Asia’s rise.

One Last Navy Issue And Its A Woozy

Keeping your mouth shut when you know your friend’s wife is cheating vs. saying something via e-mail that could make your friend go ape**** while’s he’s in the Persian Gulf trying to keep the Iranians honest….?

I have seen other sailors on a deployment freak out when they found out or suspected their spouse or significant other was cheating. Its one of the worst experiences to behold because you basically lose that person as a “shipmate”/co-worker for good after that, at least until they get on land and can get their personal stuff together. I don’t want to do that to a lot of his co-workers but at the same time I’m being pressured into being the one to say something to him by all his friends and family that can’t seem to do it themselves.

Simply put, MySpace is much more of a devil than an angel when it comes to long-distance relationships in the military.

Identity Politrix And Power At Any Costs

The conventional take on the racial accusations that have been traded by the Clinton and Obama campaign over the past week (culminating in a detente of sorts from both candidates yesterday) is that both sides are at fault, or perhaps that the Obama campaign gave in to its inherent contradictions on race.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

The prospect of black Americans voting for Obama (evaporating a highly valued constituency of the establishment Democratic candidate, Clinton) by great margins has been grudgingly accepted by the Clinton campaign in the past few weeks.  They have responded by making a play to lock him into the status as the “black candidate” and reduce his appeal to whites and (most importantly of all) Latinos.  Historically, Latino voters have not been supportive of black candidates for office.  Obama’s cross-racial appeal and his strong support from the youth of the party and independents threatens to upset that conventional wisdom.

To prevent this from developing into a trend that could defeat Hillary in California, Texas, Colorado, Nevada and perhaps even her state of New York, the Clintons had to reduce his appeal and constrain him as the candidate of black concerns and most importantly, black politics (with the near-constant touting of the suffering of blacks and the racism of the system claimed by the Al Sharptons of the world).

Listening to black radio and browsing black issue websites and blogs over the past week, one can see the long-term stupidity of this strategy for Clinton. She’s threatening to suppress the very black vote she’ll desperately need to win the White House if she is the nominee. No candidate with the kind of extraordinarily high negatives she has among the public will be able to win without the complete support of their political party.  If many blacks view the Clintons with disdain after the events of the past week (and God knows what the Clintons and their surrogates are going to be pulling in the next two-three weeks over Obama’s drug use, racial politics, the radical church he belongs to, etc.), they are likely to not vote for her in November and may even vote for her opponent, especially if it is Mike Huckabee or  John McCain.

To assume, hold and control the reins of power at any cost. That has been the standard operating procedure of the Clintons since 1992.  Such a mantra may be one of the key reasons for their embarrassing defeat in November 2008.

(A quick note on “code”.  Black voters know all about it.  Whether fact or myth, it has been widely believed that in a number of political campaigns and debates over the past 4 decades, the use of “code”, i.e. the tone and attitude of politicians intent on disparaging or downplaying black concerns in the country in an era of politically correct discourse.  Bill Clinton came across to many blacks as particularly condescending with his criticism of Obama’s Iraq views as a “fairy tale”, especially considering that many people know full well how utterly contradictory Hillary’s statements, claims and versions of her Iraq policy have been.  Ditto for Bob Johnson, the BET founder who insinuated Obama was doing cocaine in his 20’s while Hillary was out doing big things for black people.  Given his prior role in the TV network that disparages black women in its music videos and glorifies the “thug” life, as well as the fact that many people know Bill Clinton was smoking pot while draft dodging and Hillary was crafting odd feminist views and papers in their 20’s, this also counted as “code”.)