Chavez, Obama And A Plucky Rival
(first in an ongoing series of posts describing the negatives and positives of “The Obama Effect” abroad)
Hugo Chavez is not taking threats to his rule lightly. Jackson Diehl has an informative column on what Chavez’s biggest rival to date (and potential challenger to his rule in November), the young and popular mayor of Central Caracas, Leopoldo Lopez, has been up to. Look whose name pops up as a factor in the election and Chavez’s increasing paranoia.
So López was in the United States last week, making his case before the Inter-American Human Rights Commission in Washington and attending a meeting of mayors in Miami — where he was briefly able to tell his story to Barack Obama. His point is simple: “We are being obstructed because we can win. We have the votes and the government knows that. If it allows us in the race the myth that Chávez is the sole representative of the poor masses of Venezuela will be destroyed. So they are trying to force me out.”
…… Last week, when he returned to Caracas from Washington, López was detained and assaulted by a squad from the state intelligence service. Government media, meanwhile, shrieked with outrage about his meeting with Obama. The reaction was revealing: Chávez is clearly worried about the possibility of a new American president who, unlike George W. Bush, would be broadly popular in Latin America and might press for democracy in Venezuela.
That, of course, is exactly what López hopes for. “Venezuela has been very focused and disciplined about pursuing influence in the rest of the hemisphere, but there hasn’t been a clear alternative,” he told me. “What’s important is that the United States advances an agenda that makes a priority of democracy and human rights, as well as poverty alleviation and addressing inequality. Chávez has no answer to that.”
Obama’s popularity in Latin America is tied far less to policy and ideas than to identity. As a mixed-race American in a position of power, he would (initially at least) appeal to broad swathes of Latin American society based on this identity. Venezuela is in the midst of a low-level race and class war, waged for good and bad reasons by both sides and many in between. Chavez is leading the country to implosion (economic, political, social.. pick your poison) but he is not without his valid points, and the permenent end to misrule by a small element of society that is known to view the rest as inferior is no less preferable than an end to Chavez’s misrule. What has emerged is a competition between the left, the right and all in between, as some try to restore Venezuela to its constitutional moorings and others seek outright to replace Chavez’s self-indulgent strong hand with their own.
If elected, Obama could be a threat to Chavez, presenting Venezuelans with an alternative to the imperialist Yankee narrative Chavez has peddled successfully for years. Speaking to the people directly, as Kennedy and Reagan once did, he could make a difference in ratcheting down the rhetoric and the paranoid atmosphere Chavez thrives on increasingly to justify his policies.
If Obama can at least parley this competently, he succeeds in forcing Chavez to either raise his level of oppression to as yet unrealized levels (especially controlling the flow of free information) that further undermine his authority and endanger his rule or opt out of the conflict he’s trying to engender that America will not participate in and find another way to seize the momentum away from an Obama administration (which seems likely to be welcomed into power by every country save Colombia, who rightly see John McCain as their champion).
A leader like Lopez may be able to begin to heal the rifts within Venezuelan society, not in the least by bringing it back into Washington’s orbit and managing the oil industry competently, or at least act as a stop-gap for better leadership.
Optimism is in short supply but the hopes of many Venezuelans rest, however delusional, on the potential inherent in Obama as president. That their hopes have sunk so low as to pin them on a relatively conventional American politician shows the possibilities of the Obama effect, but not the consequences.
(I show Lopez in happier times, before he was beaten by security forces. Let us hope he is still alive after November).
Some excellent recent primers on Venezuela.
Challenges ahead for Chavez
Chavez boosting his loyalist candidates, banning others
Jon Lee Anderson on Chavez Full of great insight into his (mis)rule and personality, as well as the golden nugget that Castro’s retirement is likely to have a negative effect on Chavez’s competence because Fidel tends to be the voice of reason and moderation in their relationship and in his counsel to Chavez. Not a good sign for the safety of Lopez and other Chavez opponents.
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About Hidden Unities
A constant learning experience.
Chavez is learning (the hard way) that he cannot continue to parlay his one-note symphony into applause every time.
By the way, the support by so many on the left for the “anti-imperialist” Chavez is very infantile–but extremely widespread among elites in the US and Britain.
I doubt he is learning, at least that he is internalizing the lessons from his mistakes and they’re influencing his current and future direction. He’s making the same mistakes over, and for every step forward (like pressuring the FARC) he takes two or three back (ignoring the maintenance on the oil platforms and equipment, pressuring neighbors like Brazil and Chile, passing the buck on social reforms that aren’t working).
While the chances of him being elected are slim I think, an Obama victory would offer a narrow window of opportunity for some of these outrageous myths of the Left in Latin America to be imploded. Talking past Chavez straight to the people (who actually favor him, at least at this point) would help pop the bubble of Chavez’s “people power” mob rule appeal for at least some on the Left.
Can Obama legitimately speak in a conciliatory fashion about faith, race, poverty and opportunity to the masses in Caracas and elsewhere?
I certainly think he could speak in such a fashion–the real question is whether he could deliver policy-wise.
An interesting piece of wishful thinking. Maybe it will even come true.
Certainly no one’s told Obama’s surrogates. Last I watched the cable news networks, they were criticizing McCain’s trip to Colombia, when he should be in Ohio instead. Obama’s economic unilaterialism is both dangerous and stupid, but perhaps (like many of his other positions) it is just chosen out of electoral convenience.
It will be interesting to see how if he increases or decreases pro-black, anti-hispanic discrimination in how affirmative action is administered, and if this has international effects, as well.
I listened to NPR yesterday morning and a report was on about trade and its political implications.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=92060060
The reporter noted that most economists obviously support free trade, and that Obama was once a free trader but now talks protectionist. The reason he alluded to was the key battleground states all have strong anti-trade streaks, from PA to Michigan. I commented months ago on your blog about my approval of McCain telling the truth to Michigan voters and condemning Romney for giving them a fairy tale.
We know who won that argument at the ballot that GOP primary. No wonder Obama is being opportunistic now.
I hope he shifts against race-based affirmative action formally. We’ll see.
I sort of disagree that its wishful thinking.
The majority of the masses in L. America seem more into identity politics than free trade right now.
They see him as a fellow traveler. How long they view him as such will tell the tale. i doubt for long.
Its also telling Chavez freaked out when Lopez met Obama. Does he view Obama as a threat? Probably.
Thank you for commenting.
“We know who won that argument at the ballot that GOP primary. No wonder Obama is being opportunistic now.”
At least this inoculates McCain from any criticism if he picks Romney — why criticize Romney as VP, when the alternative is Romney (Obama) as Prsident!
“Its also telling Chavez freaked out when Lopez met Obama. Does he view Obama as a threat? Probably. ”
Obama’s been consistently pro-whatever-increases-Obama’s-power. [1] Chavez surely recognizes that, and (being politics) realizes that power is a zero-sum game.
The idea of the Democratic presidential nominee being a champion of Latin American populism would be laughable if it wasn’t true.
McCain’s pro-trade “public diplomacy,” however, has the potential to do some good.
[1] http://www.tdaxp.com/archive/2008/07/02/power-seeking-among-other-things.html
Its good politics (From a political perspective, not the benefit of America necessarily).
I don’t see how McCain’s pro-trade PD will do good right now.
Unless it gets Colombia’s free-trade deal passed this year.
In that case, I would wish him all the best.
I agree that Obama is putting his political benefits above the benefits of the nation, as it relates to free trade and Latin America.
An Obama administration will be sympathetic to the leftist view of Chavez. That coupled will an isolationist streak will mean Chavez has nothing to fear from an Obamania USA.