Notebook 7.2
Russia joins the ranks of the delusional, offering up half-baked diplomatic initiatives and theories of dominance that don’t mesh with reality. Jim Hoagland of the Washington Post has the details. I acknowledge the wisdom of TDAXP‘s assessment of Russia when faced with hubris like this.
“Traveling to Berlin early this month on one of his first trips as president, Medvedev stressed the need for “a new world order.” Leaders call for the founding of a new world order only when they are convinced that their nation will dominate it. That was true for George H.W. Bush in 1991, and it is true today for Putin, Medvedev and others in Russia’s reformulated leadership.”
Robert Kaplan continues to thrive writing short posts on the Atlantic Monthly’s Current daily. Here he looks @ Thomas Malthus and his meaning in today’s world.
Nevertheless, if Malthus is wrong, then why is it necessary to prove him wrong again and again, every decade and every century? Perhaps because a fear exists that at some fundamental level, Malthus is right. For the great contribution of this estimable man was to bring nature itself into the argument over politics. Indeed, in an era of global warming, Malthus may prove among the most-relevant philosophers of the Enlightenment.
Fareed Zakaria and Thomas PM Barnett both helpfully pour cold water on the heated rhetoric of fear and exaggeration that dominates America’s understanding of problems like terrorism and Iran’s nuclear program.
In a sense, the warriors are pessimists. In the old days they were scared that communists would destroy America. Today they rail that Al Qaeda and Iran threaten our way of life. In fact, America is an extremely powerful country, with a unique and extraordinary set of strengths. The only way that position can truly be eroded is by its own actions and overreactions—by unwise and imprudent leadership. A good way to start correcting the errors of the past would be to recognize that we are not at war.
As I’ve said repeatedly, terrorism is, to me, what’s left, not what’s next—much less what’s transcendent.
To me, that’s like America in 1875 saying Crazy Horse and threats like him are the future of the United States experiment and we should reshape our entire government and foreign policy and national security establishment to meet this transcendent challenge.
Andrew Sullivan reviews the writings of Bill Kristol, mocking Senator Chuck Hagel in late 2002 for daring to ask what happens after Saddam’s regime would fall, and dismissing with maximum ignorance the possibility of sectarian violence in post-Saddam Iraq. The repugnant Kristol has proven time and again he has the same level of reputability as Tim Donaghy, the disgraced NBA referee, yet is a darling of the media and now enjoys a perch at the New York Times as a resident conservative columnist. There are far, far better conservatives to represent our ideas and opinions than him, and I find it a tad insulting the Times misrepresents us so.
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July 2, 2008 - Posted by EB | Uncategorized | Andrew Sullivan, Fareed Zakaria, Grand Strategy, Iran, Iraq, Jim Hoagland, Malthus, Robert Kaplan, Russia, TDAXP, Thomas PM Barnett
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[...] his bizarre flat capital tax, btw), identified Kaplan’s piece on Malthus (also highlighted on Eddie’s blog), and recently shared this criticism of Florida’s buy-out of U.S. Sugar via Google Reader. [...]
Pingback by tdaxp » Blog Archive » The Sugar Buyout | July 3, 2008 |
Thank you for the kind words.
I’m sorry I don’t have kind words to say about Kaplan’s piece on Malthus. [1]
Fareed Zakaria’s new book is very good.
I haven’t read Sullivan in a long time. Has he always been this incoherent? I really have trouble keeping up with these sorts of critics: do we believe that Bush screwed up the occupation, or that the pre-war doomsayers were right?
The standard line now seems to be the former (now that we see the Lost Year in retrospect, it’s easy to see what went wrong, and how hard we had to fight to get back there). But Sullivan seems to argue the latter.
[1] http://cominganarchy.com/2008/07/03/kaplan-on-malthus/#comment-384388
With this particular critique of Kristol’s illogical and uneducated rantings, I don’t see the problem.
Kristol was dead wrong on nearly everything about Iraq and the war and yet enjoys a dignified position as an Iraq expert within the media. He’s a hack. There are far better neoconservative arguments about Iraq to make, that aren’t flat wrong like Kristol’s have been.
I went to the library Tuesday night and skimmed that Kristol book, its embarrassing.
I’m confused… are you arguing that the Lost Year was a mirage, and that sectarian violence in 2003 and 2004 was much higher than our statistics indicate?
What do you mean by “lost year”? I am aware that sectarian violence was at its peak (by far) in 05-06, but there was considerable violence nonetheless in 03-04, most of it related to the lack of a functioning state. I would advise you to read the last 50 pages of “The Fall of Baghdad” by Jon Lee Anderson, “The Assassin’s Gate” by George Packer, Nir Rosen’s book about the insurgents and violence overall in Iraq and countless other books that describe sectarian (religious and ethnic) violence and incredibly heightened criminal activity in Iraq in 03 and afterwards. Again, not to the level of 05-06, but exponentially more than Kristol and others claimed would occur.
I’ll give Kristol and others this. A key part of the violence was orchestrated by known criminals, most of whom Saddam released prior to the invasion.(1) Perhaps the potential havoc they could wreak on Iraqi society and coalition efforts was under appreciated.
http://hiddenunities.wordpress.com/2008/06/17/catching-up-with-books-617/
If you read Kristol’s book, you notice he claims there would be very little violence, that it would be dead-enders and swiftly taken care of. How wrong he was.
Some explanation of the “Lost Year” courtesy of Tom: [1,2,3,4]
Essentially, for around a year we had post-Surge levels of violence, which are acceptably in situations like this because it takes the occupation “off the front burner.”
Thus, military deaths were acceptable, in the same way that US traffic fatalities are acceptable: obviously 0 is the optimal number, but as long as the issue does not warp the political process, the system continues on uninterrupted.
[1] http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2006/11/what_the_realists_lost_in_iraq.html
[2] http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2007/09/this_weeks_column_23.html
[3] http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2006/03/exhibit_1_why_no_serious_think.html
[4] http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2007/09/the_nature_of_my_frustration_o.html