Two Scenarios For A Small But Fierce Nuclear Capability

In response to the esteemed Cheryl Rofer’s call for a small nuclear capability blog tank, I humbly offer two scenarios of sorts. (H/T Zenpundit)

Incidentally, for my “Technology & Society” class I had chosen to write about technology or scientific advancements that could break down state control for my final assignment. These are but two (fleshed out now) possibilities I had explored for the topic (I ended up choosing the car bomb and its children in the evolutionary process).  The idea of a long-oppressed people sitting on a great resource and an opportunist business figure or government linking together is worth exploring.

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Iraqi Kurdistan’s record oil revenues from 2007-2013 were not just the source of income for impressive infrastructure and social improvements that have helped make it one of the world’s brightest economic stars. They bought the emergence of the Kurdish confederation, comprised of Kurds living in lands once governed by Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria, in an arrangement similar to Native American tribal confederations in the 17th and 18th centuries amid assumed French & British rule. How?

After Israel attacked Iran in an unsuccessful attempt to set back the nascent Iranian nuclear program, Iran retaliated by savaging as much of the Saudi oil industry as it could and killing hundreds of American soldiers in Iraq within their bases thanks to its allies within the Iraqi military and government. Israel’s bombs killed tens of thousands of Iranian civilians who lived around the targeted nuclear facilities, making it a pariah state even with nominal allies like Turkey and Jordan. A year later, Iran tested its first nuclear weapon and Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt pushed forward with plans of their own. With tacit support from the _____ Administration, over the last two years Israel parlayed its contacts within Iraqi Kurdistan and began a slow but steady training program for key elements of the Kurdish Iraqi federation.

Russia had replaced the US as the nominal guarantor of Saudi security (the Saudis blamed American incompetence for half their production going offline for the next few years and grew tired of American pressure to reform) and was assisting them with their nuclear program. China and India competed for Iran’s favor, with Iran choosing neither but signing lucrative oil and gas pipeline deals with both in exchange for weapons systems and economic investment. Pressure at home after the failed Israeli attacks led to a significant draw down of US forces in Iraq except for two bases of significance in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Iraqi government was pressuring the Kurds to concede more power and oil revenues, something the Kurds were hesitant to do, leading to worsening relations. A rash of assassinations (only one of which was tied to a Kurdish extremist) of Turkish figures in politics and the military amid the continuing power struggle between (now-split) political Islamists and secularists led a hard line Turkish government (having seen its EU application delayed yet again by ground-swell opposition in Europe and experiencing strained relations with America) to unleash a new offensive on Kurds within Turkey, imprisoning thousands and driving even more into Iraqi Kurdistan.

Yesterday, the Iraqi Kurds announced the formation of a Kurdish confederation, minutes after introducing shocked IAEA officials inspecting Turkish nuclear facilities to a mountain bunker where two nuclear warheads (one loaded on a hybrid American-Israeli missile) were housed. Iraqi Kurdistan leaders informed the Iraqi government they were joining a Kurdish confederation but were not (as of this moment) interested in seceding entirely from Iraq. Revenues would continue to be shared as previously agreed and Kurdish units would be available to defend Iraq against Iranian aggression. Iranian Kurdish leaders explained their position to the Supreme Leader of Iran and noted targeting of Tehran and Iranian oil fields by several nuclear devices was existent. The Syrians were equally appraised of their own prime real estate being targeted.

The Israelis admit to nothing but an outraged official in the _____ Administration who quit office and fled to Dubai leaked to Al-Jazeera a highly classified memo expressing American satisfaction with the nascent Kurdish nuclear capability.

The Kurdish Confederation…

1- decided to prove its capability by proving it directly to the IAEA (no need for a test?).

2- utilized some of its main revenue source (oil) to secure its future from being harnessed for the enrichment of others at its expense (as in the past).

3- is probably seen as a useful proxy by Israeli & American leaders seeking some foothold in the region after the consequences of the Iranian nuclear capability and the influence of other powers in the region caused them to reassess their state in the region.

4- avoids (for now) costly warfare to secure what is already a political reality in one country (Kurdish independence) and wants to expand in three others.

5- was the beneficiary of training and outright sponsorship of its nuclear missile capability by two powers.

6- could use other means of potential delivery, from smuggling it on a truck to bringing the device into the potential target area weeks, months, years in advance of its possible use.

(as I’m not familiar enough with the radiation detection technology used by DHS and others, could they not position it near a nuclear facility in Turkey or Iran to circumvent this somewhat?)

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Amid continued attacks from the MEND, escalating religious, tribal and geographic divides within Nigeria caused by an anemic economy, skyrocketing food and fuel costs and corruption that only seemed to worsen each year, the Nigerian oil industry had ground to a halt. Environmental devastation was left unaddressed and living conditions in the Niger Delta only grew more dire.

Enter a Russian oil magnate with extensive holdings in sub-Saharan Africa who had displeased the second Putin regime enough after picking the losing side in an internal power struggle to consider his chances of high office next to impossible. He did enjoy good relations with a particular dissident faction within Russia’s shadowy security complex. This was the same bunch who had specialized in the once busy but now still shuttered fissile materials black market that A.Q. Khan and others had utilized. They were in need of capital and with the recent joining of the nuclear club by Iran, decided to reactivate it.

The Russian oil magnate, J.R., and his backers among other Russian business interests had an idea to address the grievances of the M.E.N.D. (paying them off) and the peoples of the delta region, expand influence and make a ton of money in the process.

The Niger Delta region would declare its independence from Nigeria, kick Royal Dutch Shell and the other oil firms out, invite PetroChina in (with its now world-renowned “geese” extraction process, a reference to a far more environmentally friendly drilling operation that China had developed in 2011), and defend itself by threatening to detonate nuclear devices in Lagos or elsewhere, as well as within the Delta itself, in order to destroy the oil economy there forever.

Thus far, J.R.’s plan has succeeded. The Chinese signed onto the plan, helping to prevent Nigerian forces from calling J.R.’s bluff (at the moment, they only had enough material to detonate a low-yield weapon loaded on a truck at a shipping facility on the coast that could conceivably pay enough bribes to make it to Lagos) by offering generous loans, grants and investments to interested factions within the Nigerian economy as well as new weapons for certain elements of the Nigerian military.

The Niger Delta region…..

1- has some fissile material and a truck bomb at this point.

2- could not have pulled this off without the assistance of outsiders, in this case, an enabler (someone who could get the material himself) and a sponsor (the Chinese, who seize the opportunity to secure oil interests for themselves yet have the capital and the influence to at least maintain interests with certain elements of the Nigerian establishment).

3- could conceivably face more internal division and conflict if tensions and interests are not well-managed, something a corporation interest (like the Russian J.R.) may not be able to do. Substitute J.R. for any other powerful individual or corporation and this is still feasible somewhere in the world today.

The corporation could very well be an oil company on its own looking to secure its future by guaranteeing its holdings. Some of them already have private armies and even private air forces (essentially a small but potent military force).

Why not seize assets from a decaying vampire state like Nigeria (or Venezuela) and secure them with nuclear weapons?