Human Agency And Inevitable Outcomes

Philip Stephens of the FT wrote last week:

“Look back at the past century and most of the good and the bad flowed from the ideas and decisions of political leaders. The same will be true of the coming decades. Bad outcomes, as the NIC concludes, are not inevitable.”

How inevitable was the uncontrollable spread of AIDS in South Africa?

As it contributes to the destabilization of a society already beset by a flailing pseudo-democracy, mounting xenophobia, economic decay and a neighbor on the edge of imploding (Zimbabwe), the AIDS epidemic should be recognized as the leadership fiasco it has been for years. It has been established in Uganda, Thailand and elsewhere that pragmatic, realistic leadership can address the problem effectively.

A recent Harvard study offers data to support this observation, projecting that former South African President Mbeki and his government’s inability to address AIDS has killed 365,000 South Africans prematurely. How many more hundreds of thousands will die prematurely in the next decade?

The human agency is too often overlooked when we analyze or consider why matters are where they currently stand. Without trying to fall into the “great man” trap that opens up with history now and then by ascribing the human agency’s importance as paramount above all else, there are areas where this does seem to have a greater impact than ascribed. When the US considers its allies and their individual importance to our interests, it would be best if we kept this in mind.

The Gloria Arroyos of the world should be shown no loyalty, given that their policies only benefit us in the short term anyway and damage their country for decades to come. The Alvaro Uribes should be rewarded, even at a cost to us in the short term (as in a more beneficial free trade agreement than normally agreed upon) because of what their leadership affords for the long view.